The Polemics and Empirics of the Sustainability of Australia’s Current Account Deficit - Revisited

In this paper the polemics and empirics on the sustainability of Australia’s high current account deficits and foreign debt that prevailed during the period 1959q3-2007q1 is revisited. The paper contends that the forces of globalization brought about a policy regime shift culminating in the floating of the Australian dollar in 1983q4. However, the policymakers failed to abandon the static old paradigm, the Keynesian-Mundell-Fleming model, which had been rendered obsolete by the policy regime shift. The policymakers continued to distill their activist policies to reduce the high current account deficits from an outmoded paradigm. The proponents of the rival new paradigm argued that the current account imbalances were the residual outcome of rational optimizing decisions of private sector agents and therefore the use of activist policies to target the reduction of the current account deficits as proposed by the adherents of the old paradigm were misconceived. The ensuing clash between the proponents of rival paradigms fuelled the policy polemics during almost a decade after the paradigm shift that occurred at the same time as the floating of the exchange rate. The activist policies failed to halt the rise in the current account deficits and foreign debt and the predicted dire economic consequences from the failure to rein in the current account deficit never materialized. Today, the current deficits and the foreign debt are at record high levels by historical standards, but they do not seem to grab the attention of the policymakers or make media headlines as in the past. The empirical results offer qualified support for prevalence of consumption smoothing during both the pre and post-float periods. The finding in favour of consumption-smoothing during the pre-float era is at odds with the findings of other studies. There appears to be evidence supporting the hypothesis that a regime-shift due to globalization and it occurred at the same time as the float and was reflected in an increase in consumption-tilting. Post-float and during the entire study period Australia, appears to have satisfied the intertemporal budget constraint and remained solvent. Furthermore, both over the whole sample period and post float period Australia appears to have engaged in effective consumption-smoothing notwithstanding the polemics and some empirics to the contrary. The solvency and consumption smoothing dynamics observed for Australia during the study period supports the new paradigm’s non-activist policy stance towards high current account deficits. However, it should be noted that this passive policy stance that is intertemporally optimal for achieving current account sustainability in Australia may not be applicable in other countries with high current account deficits because they may idiosyncratic features that differ widely from those prevalent in Australia.

Microeconomic Reform and Technical Efficiency in Australian Manufacturing

The technical efficiency dividend reaped by Australian manufacturing industries following the implementation of microeconomic reforms over the past three decades is analysed empirically in this paper. The technical efficiency scores have been estimated for manufacturing industries using a combined stochastic production-frontier inefficiency model that is free of simultaneity bias. The model parameters have been estimated using maximum likelihood techniques using a panel data set covering a cross-section of 8 industries spanning a time-series of 26 years (1969-1995). The empirical results shed light on how technical inefficiency in manufacturing has been whittled down by the microeconomic reform induced trade liberalisation and technology diffusion processes. Generalised likelihood ratio tests reject the null hypotheses that trade liberalisation and technology transfer had no significant impact on the reduction of technical inefficiency. The reduction of effective rate of assistance and technical efficiency and technology proxies such as intra-industry trade and capital deepening are negatively correlated during the study period. These findings give credence to the predictions of endogenous growth theories that openness of the economy provides a conduit for accessing new technology that promotes innovation and technical efficiency. The increase in technical efficiency of manufacturing industries is the unsung hero behind the emergence of the 'new economy' or the spectacular pick-up of productivity growth observed for Australia during the 1990s. The error-correction modelling reported at the outset confirms that this productivity pick-up is not an artefact of a cyclical upturn. It is attributable to the microeconomic reforms and the technology transfer that has followed it. The paper concludes on the need for further research , first, to shed light on the constituents of total factor productivity such as technical change and technical progress and second, to design policy to address the challenging issues of equity-efficiency trade-off lest it degenerates into a back-lash that could nullify the whole reform agenda.

Maverick Firms: An Exploratory Analysis of Mortgage Providers in Australia

Globalisation can be described as a dynamic process that links the economy of a nation with the world economy through economic and non-economic forces. In this paper I shall confine myself to the economic forces of globalisation and in particular to cross-border capital flows. The process of globalisation has its origins in antiquity but recent innovations in information and communications technology has speeded up the process and also heated up the controversies surrounding the costs and benefits of globalisation. In this paper I propose to use some well tested simple economic models to examine in a cool manner some of the hot topics of economic globalisation. Economists have a remarkable propensity to disagree among themselves and this came to the attention of the literary icon Bernard Shaw and irked a US president demanded advice from the non-existent one-handed economist. Well economists disagree because there are many good ways to skin a cat. Economists use models to analyse complex problems and give answers that may be technically correct. But just like the answer given to the hot-air balloonists who got lost and asked directions, the answers may be technically correct but not operational ( a famous joke about economists). To make the answers operational it is necessary to interpret the answers in the light of country specifics.

Globalization, Crisis Contagion and the Reform of the International Financial Architecture

The process of globalization has integrated financial markets and cross-border capital flows. This has resulted in the hyper mobility of capital and increased the vulnerability of nations to speculative attacks on their currencies. Capital flows deliver benefits in a first-best world. However, in a second-best world capital controls can reduce the welfare losses due to information asymmetry and other distortions. The speed and sequencing of capital account liberalization are critical to minimize the exposure of an economy to currency crises. Various types of currency crises and resulting contagion and its regional nature have been reviewed. Crisis contagion poses a systemic threat to the stability of the global financial system. Therefore the reform of the international financial architecture in order to minimize the occurrence of crises and crises contagion is matter of utmost importance. The role of the key players in the arena of global capital flows and the proposals for redesigning the international financial architecture are critically reviewed

The Asian Financial Melt-Down and the IMF Rescue Package

This paper reviews stylised facts on the Asian growth miracle generated using the growth accounting framework. It reviews rival models that purport to explain an economic crisis in terms of deteriorating macroeconomic fundamentals, time-inconsistent policies and rational self-fulfilling panic models. The versions of the panic models focusing on illiquidity- insolvency and moral-hazard asset price bubbles - are shown to fit the stylised facts in Asia-5 economies better than rival models. These models identify that the sudden loss of confidence amongst foreign creditors was the prime cause of the dramatic reversal of capital flows that ultimately caused the collapse of the Asian growth miracle. The channels that facilitated the regional spillover, namely the crisis-contagion in Thailand are identified. The role of the IMF bailout which rescued member nations from their crisis predicament and prevented systemic risks from threatening the stability of the world financial system is also examined. The failure of the IMF bailout package to restore investor confidence and reverse capital outflows in the first instance are analysed. The need to reform the IMF and establish a robust global financial architecture that could prevent the recurrence of severe financial crises is also highlighted

Microeconomic Reform and Technical Efficiency in Australian Manufacturing

The technical efficiency dividend reaped by Australian manufacturing industries following the implementation of microeconomic reforms over the past three decades is analysed empirically in this paper. The technical efficiency scores have been estimated for manufacturing industries using a combined stochastic production-frontier inefficiency model that is free of simultaneity bias. The model parameters have been estimated using maximum likelihood techniques using a panel data set covering a cross-section of 8 industries spanning a time-series of 26 years (1969-1995). The empirical results shed light on how technical inefficiency in manufacturing has been whittled down by the microeconomic reform induced trade liberalisation and technology diffusion processes. Generalised likelihood ratio tests reject the null hypotheses that trade liberalisation and technology transfer had no significant impact on the reduction of technical inefficiency. The reduction of effective rate of assistance and technical efficiency and technology proxies such as intra-industry trade and capital deepening are negatively correlated during the study period. These findings give credence to the predictions of endogenous growth theories that openness of the economy provides a conduit for accessing new technology that promotes innovation and technical efficiency. The increase in technical efficiency of manufacturing industries is the unsung hero behind the emergence of the 'new economy' or the spectacular pick-up of productivity growth observed for Australia during the 1990s. The error-correction modelling reported at the outset confirms that this productivity pick-up is not an artefact of a cyclical upturn. It is attributable to the microeconomic reforms and the technology transfer that has followed it. The paper concludes on the need for further research , first, to shed light on the constituents of total factor productivity such as technical change and technical progress and second, to design policy to address the challenging issues of equity-efficiency trade-off lest it degenerates into a back-lash that could nullify the whole reform agenda

Macroeconomic Shocks, Depreciation and Inflation: an Australian Perspective

The general equilibrium approach demonstrates that macroeconomic shocks link the exchange rate and the inflation rate through diverse transmission channels. Therefore, the one-track focus of the partial equilibrium 'pass-through' approach that predicts that exchange rate depreciation causes inflation is flawed does not explain the exchange rate inflation dynamics of post-float australia. In this paper based on a mundell-fleming stochastic rational expectations model the theoretical priors that link exogenous shocks and macro-variables such variables real exchange rate, relative prices and relative output have been identified. Thereafter, the structural var (svar) methodology has been deployed to the identify the exogenous shocks by appealing to the long-run classical neutrality postulates. The dynamic interactions between shocks and macro-variables have been empirically reviewed using innovation accounting

Policy Challenges of Economic Globalisation

Globalisation can be described as a dynamic process that links the economy of a nation with the world economy through economic and non-economic forces. In this paper I shall confine myself to the economic forces of globalisation and in particular to cross-border capital flows. The process of globalisation has its origins in antiquity but recent innovations in information and communications technology has speeded up the process and also heated up the controversies surrounding the costs and benefits of globalisation. In this paper I propose to use some well tested simple economic models to examine in a cool manner some of the hot topics of economic globalisation. Economists have a remarkable propensity to disagree among themselves and this came to the attention of the literary icon Bernard Shaw and irked a US president demanded advice from the non-existent one-handed economist. Well economists disagree because there are many good ways to skin a cat. Economists use models to analyse complex problems and give answers that may be technically correct. But just like the answer given to the hot-air balloonists who got lost and asked directions, the answers may be technically correct but not operational (a famous joke about economists). To make the answers operational it is necessary to interpret the answers in the light of country specifics

Regime-Shifts & Post-Float Inflation Dynamics In Australia

Australia’s inflation rate and inflation uncertainty during the post-float era 1983Q3-2006Q4 have acted as important barometers of Australia’s macroeconomic performance. The conceptualisation and measurement of the nexus between inflation and inflation uncertainty is subject to complex dynamics. We use Markov regime switching heteroscedasticity (MRSH) model to capture long-run stochastic trend and short-run noisy components. This allows us to conclude that in post-float Australia the results deviate significantly from the mainstream Friedman paradigm on inflation and its uncertainty. We also critically review the plausibility of rival paradigm explaining this paradoxical behaviour. The regime shifts detected in the inflation dynamics appear to be linked to the macroeconomic policies pursued to achieve external and internal balance as implied by Keynesian Mundell-Fleming model.

The Polemics and Empirics of the Sustainability of Australia's Current Account Deficit - Revisited

In this paper the polemics and empirics on the sustainability of Australia’s high current account deficits and foreign debt that prevailed during the period 1959q3-2007q1 is revisited. The paper contends that the forces of globalization brought about a policy regime shift culminating in the floating of the Australian dollar in 1983q4. However, the policymakers failed to abandon the static old paradigm, the Keynesian-Mundell-Fleming model, which had been rendered obsolete by the policy regime shift. The policymakers continued to distill their activist policies to reduce the high current account deficits from an outmoded paradigm. The proponents of the rival new paradigm argued that the current account imbalances were the residual outcome of rational optimizing decisions of private sector agents and therefore the use of activist policies to target the reduction of the current account deficits as proposed by the adherents of the old paradigm were misconceived. The ensuing clash between the proponents of rival paradigms fuelled the policy polemics during almost a decade after the paradigm shift that occurred at the same time as the floating of the exchange rate. The activist policies failed to halt the rise in the current account deficits and foreign debt and the predicted dire economic consequences from the failure to rein in the current account deficit never materialized. Today, the current deficits and the foreign debt are at record high levels by historical standards, but they do not seem to grab the attention of the policymakers or make media headlines as in the past. The empirical results offer qualified support for prevalence of consumption smoothing during both the pre and post-float periods. The finding in favour of consumption-smoothing during the pre-float era is at odds with the findings of other studies. There appears to be evidence supporting the hypothesis that a regime-shift due to globalization and it occurred at the same time as the float and was reflected in an increase in consumption-tilting. Post-float and during the entire study period Australia, appears to have satisfied the intertemporal budget constraint and remained solvent. Furthermore, both over the whole sample period and post float period Australia appears to have engaged in effective consumption-smoothing notwithstanding the polemics and some empirics to the contrary. The solvency and consumption smoothing dynamics observed for Australia during the study period supports the new paradigm’s non-activist policy stance towards high current account deficits. However, it should be noted that this passive policy stance that is intertemporally optimal for achieving current account sustainability in Australia may not be applicable in other countries with high current account deficits because they may idiosyncratic features that differ widely from those prevalent in Australia. JEL classification: C32, E13, E21, E60, F32, N1